AQRI.net correspondent reporting live from Mogadishu, Somalia. Tensions are rising in the Horn of Africa as Ethiopia raises concerns about the upcoming African Union (AU) mission in Somalia. The new mission, known as AUSSOM, is slated to replace the existing peacekeeping force (AMISOM) in January 2025. However, Ethiopia views AUSSOM with suspicion, fearing it could exacerbate regional instability.
Ethiopia’s Concerns
Ethiopia’s foreign ministry issued a statement expressing deep anxieties about AUSSOM. They believe the mission is “fraught with dangers” and accuse Somalia of collaborating with unnamed actors who aim to destabilize the region. This unease comes on the heels of Egypt sending military aid to Somalia, further escalating tensions between Addis Ababa and Cairo.
Longstanding Tensions
Ethiopia and Egypt have a history of strained relations, primarily due to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project. Egypt considers this massive dam on the Blue Nile a threat to its water security, while Ethiopia views it as crucial for development. Protracted negotiations on the GERD have yielded little progress, adding to the friction between the two nations.
Shifting Alliances
The situation becomes more complex with shifting regional alliances. Ethiopia’s controversial maritime deal with the breakaway Somali region of Somaliland further strained its relationship with Mogadishu. Meanwhile, Somalia and Egypt have strengthened their ties by signing a recent military cooperation agreement.
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Uncertain Future
The nature of the Egyptian military aid to Somalia remains unclear. However, Somalia’s ambassador to Egypt welcomes the assistance, calling it a “practical step” towards implementing their joint security goals. Additionally, reports suggest Egypt might be the first nation to deploy troops under AUSSOM.
Uncertainty Surrounds AUSSOM
With the impending withdrawal of the current AU peacekeeping force (AMISOM) by the end of 2024, AUSSOM faces significant challenges. Ethiopia’s objections and the shifting alliances in the region raise questions about the effectiveness of the new mission.
AQRI.net will continue to monitor this developing situation and provide updates on the future of the AU mission in Somalia and its potential impact on the Horn of Africa’s stability.
